Strong Economic Data Points to Market Stability and Growth Opportunities

Hey everyone, me Kevin here. We got to talk about something in the news that really nobody is talking about and frankly it's good. It's one of the reasons we've been increasing where we are on the Bear Bull scale. In fact, we're sitting at a 7.1 right now. I haven't mentioned it publicly yet on the channel, but I wanted to mention it here mostly because of underlying economic data. I'm going to break down some of these things with you. We're going to keep it really casual here. The reason I'm conveying this to you is because I just want you to know one of the reasons we've been looking at not only allocating more stocks to our portfolio that is newer stocks but also increasing our position is because you know even

during the war we were looking at underlying economic fundamentals and realizing wait a sec the economy oddly is actually strengthening. Now of course the straight of horm creates problems. We're going to have higher for longer oil. We've said that for a while, but something that has gone extremely under reportported over the last few weeks, uh especially the last 2 weeks where the data has been phenomenal, and I'm going to read you that data right now. Uh and really no headlines anywhere. Like I saw nobody reporting on this except for frankly, and I'm not trying to pitch it, but yes, we have a coupon code expiring tonight at me.com. You know

that, but I'm not trying to pitch the alpha membership, but that's where we've been talking about this. We're like, guys, nobody is paying attention. last Tuesday and this Tuesday to what's happening in the ADP employment report. And it's fantastic because we just today got our numbers for the beginning of April, which is very different than what we've had at the beginning of the year. At the beginning of the year, we had weekly ADP job gains of, and this is from the private report, the ADP survey. So, it's not the government one where we think, you know, Trump put his cronies in and he's kind of, you know, shuffling things around. You know, there could still be Trump making phone

calls to the ADP folks. I'm not going to put that past Trump's reach, but I'm going to have a little bit more hope there because they're not focused on manipulating the labor force participation rate, which the BLS is, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. that manipulation of the participation, labor force participation could lead to a sudden revision up in the unemployment report uh or like the unemployment rate substantially. You we're probably honestly over 5% unemployment, but the latest trends here are insane on ADP. So, understand this first. If I go back uh into January and February, the weekly ADP data that I was getting, 5.5,000, 7.2,000, 11.5,000, 12,000. If you multiply those by 4, you're somewhere around 22,000,

30, close to 30,000, 44,000, 48,000, right? That's sort of the trend. If you multiply those by four, which is not exact because frankly that's 28 days, right? 7* 4 is 28 days and a month, you know, on a banker's year is 30 days. And we know technically averages out even longer than that. Now, what's remarkable is we went from 5.5, 7.2, 11.5, 12, 15.5, 14.7, 9K. Then into March we went 10k, 15k, 26,000 which annualizes or uh you know comes out to on a monthly basis over 100k jobs which is incredible. But what's gone unreported for the last 2 weeks uh has been the following week ending March 28th 40,250 jolts. Holy smokes. on a monthly basis. That's over 160,000 jobs, which actually aligns with the BLS labor report of last

week, which is insane. By the way, check this out right here. Doesn't look like much, but that used to be a garage. And now this, what used to be a threeunit apartment building is now a four plus two legally permitted 2unit ADU plus the original 3+ 1 that we have over there. Six units. We turned a 3unit officially done into six units at house hack. That's what we try to do. You know, we don't just renovate properties. We actually also add housing which we're really excited about. But anyway, consider this for a moment. So 40,250 was the last Tuesday report that came out on 328 uh or for the week ending 328. It came out last Tuesday for the week ending 328. So there's a little bit of a lag about a twoe lag there. Well,

today we got the numbers for the week ending April 4th, which is the first April data we've gotten. 54,750, which actually monthizes, which is my way of saying multiply by four. uh to over well what would that be? That' be about 216,000 probably closer to 218,000 jobs. That's what the private survey is saying. We're not going to see that data until I believe it's May 3rd. Off the top of my head, I think it's May 3rd, but don't quote me on that for the next uh labor report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Oh, the labor market is not just stabilizing, which we've actually seen since November, a stabilization, right? We started, we were trending down like crazy last year, mostly because of

immigration enforcement. Immigration enforcement has slowed down and even though there have been layoff announcements, we have seen increases in hiring. Part of the thing, you know, people say, "Oh, AI is going to destroy jobs." One of the first jobs people said, "Look at this. By the way, those six units, look how close they are to the ocean. How cool is that? Right there. There it is. Isn't that awesome?" Hello. Uh, so anyway, um, what's remarkable is labor is not just stabilizing, you know, where people say, "Oh, AI is going to kill jobs or whatever." Okay, fine. But wait a second. labor from AI. When you look at radiologists, hiring amongst

radiologists has actually skyrocketed since AI because AI reduces workload on radiologists and lets people make better diagnosis than ever before and faster. So, we can get people through the system much faster than ever before. It's the same thing with cancer diagnostics. Like, I'm personally looking into, and we're going to be talking about this a lot more in the um course member liveream. And I'm starting to look into some healthcare stocks because of what AI is changing for cancer diagnostics and how much we can look at precursors and people's history and medical data to predict where somebody might end up having cancer and then screen there. So rather than screen everybody's colon, we

just screen your boobs and your butt, your stomach, and your brain because AI says that's where we should be looking. It's crazy. It is crazy where we're going. It's also the same thing with software engineers. People like, "Oh, AI can do all the software engineering." Well, hiring for software engineers has been skyrocketing. So economically, that is very bullish. Now, okay. Yes, quick pitch time. Yes, we're going to be talking about these stocks in the Mee Kevin membership. Join me at mekevin.com. Uh use coupon code straight chaos. It does end tonight and we did extend that from Friday, but

that's it. We can't extend it anymore. We will be raising the prices a good chunk. Uh so join uh before we raise the prices. Now, another thing to talk about, private credit stabilizing. I know people don't want to hear it, but it's stabilizing. The owners of Blue Owl just got their personal debt unlin from the shares of Blue Owl Capital. Other sectors of private credit are stabilizing. The bond pricing in the secondary market is stabilizing. Other firms are buying and investing into the private. So, we've got private credit stabilizing. We've got labor stabilizing. Those were big issues. Real estate has been stable. that's actually been increasing frankly in many areas

especially the uh low build areas like this area you know southern California uh so when we look at the economy yes oil prices are going to be an issue but again as long as the stock market doesn't crater there's enough stock market wealth amongst middle and higher income individuals and household wealth which are people who own their homes seniors or otherwise that you can actually absorb the oil price pain which nobody wants to hear because obviously the airlines are suffering. Duh. They're like a no margin business. I would never invest in the airlines. But broadly, yes, there's going to be suffering from higher for longer. We're probably not going to see rate cuts until we actually get the straight of four moves flowing

again. Then Kevin Warsh will come in. He'll look through the data. He'll look through that. It just rained today. So, this is a little dirty. He'll get it washed. But anyway, Kevin Worsh will just look through the data once Hormuz starts flowing again. Oil that is. He'll look through the bad data that comes and we'll start seeing cuts because he'll be able to use that look through to hopefully pressure the others to get rate cuts going and keep this economy on that path where we are actually sustaining that labor growth again. Now, all of this could obviously collapse. I don't want to sound over bullish, but it is something that is increasing my bullishness. It is leading to more of an

allocation to stocks. Uh and um even House hack, mind you. Um and we're up on our stock portfolio, which is great. You know, we've got um some fantastic uh software exposure and some stocks that we actually still think are extremely cheap, long plays, you know, 10-year plays and then also personally. So, we're pretty excited. And if you want to be part of that and learn more about how we do fundamental analysis, how we value where we think the deals are in the market and these changes that you're not hearing about because all the headlines are about Iran when frankly the underlying economic data is turning bullish.

Join us at mekevin.com. Thank you so much for watching. Feel free to subscribe. I love you all and we'll see you in the next one. Goodbye and good luck. And I'm less orange. Imagine that.