A big sigh of relief for the world as the straight of Humus opens. Oil prices have fallen, share prices have jumped, and US President Donald Trump says he believes a deal to end the Iran war is close. Let's look at this. A Maltese flagged tanker sailed through the straight and anchored of Iraq to load crude oil from its terminals at Basra. Nothing like this has been seen for weeks, but many uncertainties remain. The ceasefire is temporary and the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships remains in force. In peace time around a fifth of the world's oil and gas normally passes through the straight of Hormuz. So is opening of the waterway really a turning point. To help us

understand this, I'm speaking with Olga Hakova, an energy security specialist and a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center. Olga, let's look at the street of Hormus. Few ships have started moving through it. On this map, we see a number of vessels being parked near the waterway waiting to pass through and we have been looking at that map for weeks now. What is new is that now there is actually some movement. We see few ships making their way through the street. Olga, tell us the impact this development can have on global energy supply.

Thank you so much for having me on. Uh so that map is showing roughly over 600 chips um that are waiting for a safe passage. Um and there are you know moving slowly. They're checking in with insurance agencies to make sure uh that they will be properly insured as they move through. Uh the impacts will as we've already seen the impacts in the markets which react love reacting to the headlines. Uh a lot of optimism in the air. Uh but of course this is not something that will be resolved in a day or two or even weeks or potentially months. In the best case scenario, this will hold. This piece will hold um and we will see continued flow. These ships will reach their destination in several

weeks. Um and then we will continue to see a healthy traffic. But are we immediately even in a few weeks are coming back to 2025 flows and prices? I don't think so. There are some permanent changes uh and there are some changes that will take 3 to 5 years to fix like for example Qatar's um damaged infrastructure that's not something that can be repaired in a few weeks. Um Olga we'll talk about the infrastructure damage and also the financial markets later in the interview. The US says its blockade on Iranian ships is still in place and you briefly talked about the insurance uh insuring uh insurance companies. Do you

think the insurers and the shipping companies may still think twice before sending vessels through the uh through the waterway? No one really wants to be first, right? So, they're watching to see how the other ships are moving and they're watching to see what happens if there are any unexpected surprises. Uh but there's a lot of optimism around the traffic really opening up. So I do think we will see insurance companies after a lot of careful considerations uh slowly reducing the rates but that's not something that's going to jump as quickly as we have seen the market jump

today. Of course that's something that's going to be more methodical and again the rates will not go back to 2025 even in a couple of weeks. there is a more permanent uh risk profile uh around the region now that the insurance companies will now have to calculate in and even in a prolonged peace scenario that's something that risk that overall risk will not be going away anytime soon and this is not just about Iranian oil let's look at this we see major gas and oil exporting nations like Saudi Arabia Qatar UAE many countries in the world mostly in Asia are huge importers of the energy from the Gulf nation Gulf nations and it was the ships carrying the oil from the Gulf nations that were blocked

by Iran. So Olga a big relief for the world but also for these Gulf nations. Exactly. Um a lot of this traffic is also going to the Asian countries and Southeast Asia specifically. So a lot of them are waiting for these 600 chips to get there to provide some kind of price relief. It's as you mentioned, it's not just oil and gas. It's um it's also refined products. It's jet fuel, gasoline, diesel. A lot of these countries um they rely on a massive percentage of these uh critical energy supplies uh to power their economies and they have already felt the impact today and opening the straight is one thing. Going back to the status quo from before war is something different. Iran's bombing damaged in energy infrastructure

as you'd also earlier mentioned in many of the Gulf countries. So, Olga, even with the opening of the strait of Hormus, do you expect to see the same amount of energy supply again anytime soon? I don't think we'll see the exact same amount. We could see something that's close because we have also seen other countries try to ramp up their production. We do expect in the next few years a tremendous increase in US um LG exports and countries that could increase oil production have done so. But as we mentioned some repairs will take years. Um and overall I think nations especially you know nations that um are reliant on a lot of manufacturing or production of certain you know

whether it's chemicals or fertilizer those are very energyintensive processes and operations. So for them I think the bigger question is you know how do they make their operations more efficient are they prepared for you know the next time even if there is a more temporary a couple of day closure or a partial closure how will they deal with this risk because it is not out of the question and going back to the insurance conversation those premiums will remain higher so that's an additional cost and as we know those kinds of costs drive decisions uh for producers ers uh for buyers on where they uh procure their supplies across the world and that price difference you know can also drive

a decision on future flows long term and I'm really curious to know about some of the lessons the world may have learned from the closure of the straight of do you see countries working on looking for alternative ways to keep their energy flows intact if in future an energy route gets blocked I think it's important to be prepared for the worst case scenario and you know to remain optimistic to assume that um the peace will remain in the region. however to know what will be the next steps if there is again uh some kind of a blockades if there is again a stoppage of flows and the countries are looking at this closely right now there are some lessons from 2022 um that we can take a look at u some countries particularly

Europe uh increased their efficiency increased their renewables uh they diversified infrastructure these lessons are all applicable now so building out alternative routes they can connect the Gulf to the global markets in a more complex, more diversified ways. That can be a very specific um action, but that's not going to be done overnight or in weeks. Those infrastructure projects um can take at the best case months to years to complete. So that's one way countries can prepare. We're also seeing countries, China is a really good example in terms of the strategic reserves of oil. Uh and that has really cushioned their economy. they were able to really minimize the impact on

their prices because of just the extent of the strategic oil reserves that they've had compared to their neighboring uh Southeast Asia and other countries in the region. So thinking through of what can be strategically reserved there are some things like jet fuel that can only be reserved for about a year. So you also have to think about as a country of you know building out these strategic reserves which costs quite a bit of money and it's an opportunity cost as a country you know could you be spending this money somewhere else and how long can that fuel or that refined product actually last in the strategic reserve. So it's about making new infrastructure, new interconnections, diversifying supplies, making economies more efficient so that

way that barrel of oil goes so much further and can provide for the economy a lot more than in the past. Uh but also again preparing and hedging for the worst while anticipating the best. So you've talked about strategic reserves and I'm wondering about countries struggling economies like Pakistan, Bangladesh. These economies cannot afford to have strategic reserves. It's still big countries, industrial countries like China. So, not a lot of alternate options for those countries, right? It is much more complicated for countries that are struggling economically and for countries that are reliant on a lot of imports to run their economies, whether it's oil, whether it's um you know, refined products. So for them it's also thinking about on how

to really build out those efficiencies and how to find ways you know to diversify supplies to where if they are in that position where they can't afford strategic reserves uh can they create some hedge can they create some other contracts with alternative suppliers around the world um can they build out those relationships earlier on and that way when you do see these kinds of uh choke points they are prepared uh and they can have access to those reserves. I think you've touched an important point relationship. Relationships I think uh do you see that in future we will also see more alliances among countries uh that will help them secure uh their resources. partnerships and cooperation, you know,

is the best efficiency mechanism because then, you know, as if you have strong good relationships and allies and a coalition of allies, then you don't need to, going back to our reserves conversation, then you don't need to on your own just, you know, to have all of the reserves for all of these um all of these supplies, oil, gas, refined products. You know, you can have agreements with your allies to say, "All right, we have tremendous storage capacities of gas. You can store jet fuel. let's create some kind of an agreement where if certain supply chains are disrupted, we can help each other out. So this does create efficiency around the world and it's also about it's not just reserves it's also about

the shipping sector and you know we've talked about US trying to build out shipping capabilities but it's also about transparency what's happening around the world and the ships that are you know traveling around and making sure that we know where those supplies are coming from because I think that's another interesting point that doesn't get raised quite a bit in terms of you know what can Iran learn from Russia in terms of hiding its supplies, you know, whether it's spoofing, uh, whether it's, uh, you know, shift to ship transfers. I think that would also be really important long terms in terms of broader global shipping transparency to keep track of how the supplies are moving around the world.

Okay, let's see now how the opening of the state of Horus has been going down with the markets. Um, let's see a graph. Um, and in this graph you can easily see the moment of the announcement when Iran's foreign minister declared the strait would be reopened for commercial vessels until the end of the ceasefire. At least the barrel price for crude oil dropped sharply coming down from around $95 to something close to $86. And we saw an immediate positive impact on the financial markets as well. Olga, is this a rational response or are markets getting ahead of themselves? This is a textbook response to an announcement that we heard today, this is to be expected. Uh but I'd like to

remind our audience that this price that you just shot on the uh on the chart, that's what the market thinks the oil will cost in a couple of months. So that so with this level of optimism, this is where we are today in anticipation of where oil will be in a few months. If you were to go and seek out a barrel of oil now at that price, that's spot the difference between the current of what you can get currently today uh delivered immediately versus in a couple of months. There's a pretty big spread there. And I think that reflects the reality of you know there's still uncertainty. there's still, you know, this is a fragile situation. So, I hope that these lower prices, you know, hold. I hope that's what we

continue seeing. And I hope that in a few months when I take a look at the spot prices that's what actually is reflected. But I think we need to remember that these are the prices of what we anticipate the barrel of oil to cost versus the actual, you know, physical volumes on the market this second. Uh but tell me overall do you see this as the end of the global energy crisis? I think this is a positive development and a really tremendous positive step in the right direction. However, we're not uh we're not fully there yet to say anything is over. The profile of the region has the risk profile has

increased in a lot of ways. Uh that will be there either permanently or in for at least a couple of months. um that risk that the region carries that will be reflected in insurance premiums that will be reflected in certain ships you know just permanently trying to find alternative routes because they just cannot handle this volatility. uh this will be reflected in how countries again think through their future partnerships and deliveries and if they want to hedge if they're you know relying on 30 40 50% of certain fuels that are essential for their country through the gold route then for them that's a really big question to ask themselves are they going to bet on the fact that those

shipments will continue uninterrupted so lots of positive developments I think it's in everyone's best interest to keep us away from a 200 you know barrel oil um and to keep us away from a global economic recession. So I think no one wins in that no one would win in that scenario. So keeping that in mind I do feel somewhat optimistic but again reminding uh leaders across the world reminding nations that let's stay optimistic but let's also be prepared for a worst case scenario. I think that's really important. Energy security specialist Alka Hakua, thanks for your insights. Much appreciated. Thank you for having me on. So that's the economic side of the things. But what about the political meaning of all of this? Reactions not

only from financial markets but also from world leaders have been positive so far. Let's hear from the United Nations. The Secretary General welcomes the announcement today by the Islamic Republic of Iran that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open for all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire. The Secretary General's considers this a step in the right direction. The United Nations position remains clear. We need the full restoration of international navigational rights and freedoms in the straight of Hormuz to be respected by all parties. The Secretary General remains fully supportive of the diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful path forward out of the current conflict. He also hopes that together with the ceasefire, this measure will

contribute to creating confidence between the parties and strengthen the ongoing dialogue being facilitated by Pakistan. Let's now speak with Beam Ben Taliblau, a senior fellow and senior Iran program director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Thanks for joining us. Great to be with you. Thank you for having me. What do you think um is does the opening of the Strait of Hormuz really signal from the Iranian side?

Well, I think here we have to be very careful with our language. Uh the regime had never technically fully closed the strait and at the moment it has technically not fully opened the strait. Uh if we recall, there was about 10 to 12 mines that the Islamic Republic reportedly put in some of the narrower portions of an already very narrow international waterway uh forcing vessels to have to take paths closer to Iranian territorial waters. That seems to be at least uh based on other statements coming out of Iran today uh the modus operende that they still say that uh commercial traffic from non-belligerance is open and that they you know all of the traffic in and out of the straight of Hormuz into the

Persian Gulf would have to be coordinated uh with Iranian political or maritime or even uh security authorities in the area. So I do not necessarily think we're out of the woodwork yet. If anything, I think this was a very stylistic uh attempt uh by the Iranians and in particular the foreign minister uh to try to develop a little bit of international goodwill as they look to head into a potential second round of negotiations uh with the United States perhaps as early as this weekend perhaps as early as next week. uh but you know just because of the statements that you know Iran is opening the state of Hormus we have already seen a positive impact on the financial markets. Um do you

think that this positive impact on the financial markets could further put pressure on the US to extend the ceasefire? Well, certainly uh you hit the nail on the head when it came to the government's desire in Tehran to try to uh impact and even manipulate markets uh because that's something that both actors uh America and Iran uh in this crisis uh have been trying to do with their rhetoric. uh you know the Islamic Republic uh following the ceasefire uh following the first round of negotiations is now as you hinted uh trying to generate goodwill by talking about a return to normal in a straight where the behavior uh in that straight uh of vessel still uh is not normal is still not what it was like prior to the

commencement of this conflict but even that rhetoric had a major impact not just on the stock market but on oil and oil prices and even oil futures. So to that end uh I actually think that together those two forces markets and media looking back over the past 40 days of conflict have indeed had the greatest potential restraining effect uh on US military not capacity or capability but will to carry out that capacity and capability uh against tan. And to that end, I think uh pay very close attention uh to how a potential spike may impact American risk tolerance versus risk aversion against Iran in the future. And that made the Strait of Hormuz a big leverage for Iran. Uh but now Iran is

technically giving up its biggest leverage. Does this mean that a deal with the US is now imminent? I wouldn't say imminent, but it's looking more likely. At least both sides are looking to, and I don't like the word peace agreement or peace uh negotiations because there still uh is not genuine or real or lasting peace uh between these two actors. Uh we know, for example, the government of the Islamic Republic routinely chants death to America and has had a foreign and security policy oriented and animated towards exactly carrying that out. and in America here uh for example, it's helped build a regional or security architecture in the Middle East to exclude the Islamic Republic and really

defend against a whole host of attacks that uh they have been able to engage in, be it terrorism in the past or missile and drone uh currently or potentially even something else in the future. So to that end, I don't think the regime gave up its leverage. The one thing that is now flipping the script on the government in Tehran uh is actually the US blockade which is still present. And it's very interesting that you have a blockade in an area and still media and markets are keen to look the other way. That's how strong the desire is to look for a new normal in the Persian Gulf and straight of Hormuz. So to that end ultimately uh I don't think that it was Tehran that gave up this

leverage. I think Washington brought about the blockade and helped with the facilitation and export of Arab oil out of the Persian Gulf. And that is putting again uh pressure on Tehran because it's reversing the geographic squeeze uh that it had put on this very critical international waterway. And despite the announcement of opening of the straight of formers, we see that the US is still maintaining its blockade on the Iranian oil. Why do you think uh it's still uh keeping the blockade active? Well, it's still leverage for America again going into a potential second round of talks, but ultimately those minds, those actual things uh that the regime said it had deployed to change or impact maritime traffic there, those

minds have not been found. And worse, just a few days ago, it was reported that the government in Tehran doesn't even know uh where they are. And given that there hasn't been a full international mind sweeping mission uh in this critical part of the world um it Washington's goal or Washington's strategy seems very much more of the same uh which is to limit uh the trade coming to and from Iranian ports via this blockade. Uh thus far based on reports based on commercial available imagery based on tanker tracking data um it does look like this is not a hermetic seal. are uh vessels that do come and go. Uh but ultimately the goal is to be able to reduce the pressure on the price

and one of the things that is reducing that pressure is the supply and that is being done by getting more Arab oil out onto the market again. So even if only for economic reasons uh the US is still um there with this quote unquote blockade. And Iran's foreign minister says the reopening of the strait is quote in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon. If the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel flares up again, could we see a situation where Iran again blocks the waterway? Well, in my view, this is a measure of ideology uh more so than strategy from the Islamic Republic, particularly after such a costly conflict for them. It wasn't just the foreign minister but the parliament speaker Al Kalibuff uh who uh

leading up to and after that first round of talks in Islamabad with the Americans had also drawn uh this very important linkage that you mentioned between uh the regime in Team and its most successful proxy group uh which is Lebanese Hezbollah and tried to use America's desire for a ceasefire agreement in one theater to try to press on America to press on its partner in another theater to help bail out and save uh Lebanese Hezbollah via potential ceasefire agreement there. We saw it from the parliament speaker then we hear it from the foreign minister. Now uh ultimately this is a regime that is looking uh to live to fight another day and trying to reconstitute and save its proxy network either from American

military prowess or Israeli military capability. And given the severity of Israel's push back and incursion uh into uh South Lebanon, a real stronghold uh for Hezbollah uh recently, uh I think the regime panicked and is trying to draw linkage and is willing to escalate to play to the edge to draw this linkage as it tries to figure out just how much does America want versus need one ceasefire or the other. Benamlu, thanks so much for your analysis. Thank you. And what do you think? Will the opening of the strait end the energy crisis? And is it a first step towards a peace deal between the US and Iran? Let us know in the comments. If you like this video,

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