Hello, I'm Anker Desai. Welcome to the Global News podcast on YouTube. On this episode, I'm joined by our chief international correspondent, Lee Ducet, who's in Tehran for us. Lee, let's begin with uh recent events. What have you made of everything that's unfolded, especially from your viewpoint there in Thran? What seems to be clear in so far as anything is clear is that first round of high level face-toface and it has to be said historic talks in Islamabad did make what both sides are describing as significant progress. But from there the account is dramatically different between the two sides.

President Trump continues to give these upbeat assessments that they're on the brink of a deal, that there are only insignificant differences remaining. In his words, we can straighten them out. But for is for Iran, those insignificant differences are actually major concessions. Um, and while we're not exactly clear uh all of the details of the discussion, what we do know from the last round of very protracted negotiations which did reach a nuclear deal in 2015 is that these files are highly technical. We're talking about nuclear power after all. They're deeply sensitive because they are asking Iran to make significant concessions, but so to the United States has to. that is in the nature of negotiations a give and

take so that both sides can say well we didn't get everything but it is still a winwin um and Iran has said there's many gaps to close and some fundamental points so this is not a deal uh that can be done in a day it could not be expected that 47 years of enmity between the Islamic Republic of Iran um and the United States of America could be could be done could be removed um in so short a time. But what we do hear is that they are working on something far less than a grand bargain, but would what would still be a significant step and that is some kind of a framework is the word being used by some of the Iranians that we've heard from a memorandum of understanding about some broad points

and then the two sides would agree to embark on a more intensive more detailed discussions perhaps over a period of 60 days. Even 60 days may not be enough uh to close the gaps, but it may be enough to keep a fragile ceasefire in force. So what you have here is two very different political systems, two very different political ideologies, two very different negotiating styles and to try to mesh them in such a short time uh would really be uh considered almost miraculous. I find it fascinating the strategies that are being used on both sides. You've mentioned this yourself. You've got Iran on one side who are taking a longer view uh when it comes to their strategy. Then you've got Donald Trump

on the other side in Washington who want immediiacy, who want the big deal and they want it done now. They want it done quickly and they want it done fast. Yes. And uh if you wanted to do a quick deal, you'd also have to have a lot of trust between the two sides. You'd also have to have a lot of understanding. You would have also had to have what was achieved what was a process uh stretching over 18 months of breakdowns and breakthroughs with the uh when the last nuclear negotiations which involve not just the United States and Iran but other world powers the permanent members of the UN security council and a strong

EU delegation that by the end of it not only did they have a deal but they had a better sense of each other they had earned each other's political respect yes they had stormed out of meetings. They had argued at over each other, but they understand each other's sides and they both ended up making compromises to do the deal. They are just beginning this uh on this now this new round of high stakes high level negotiations. But on the positive side, a taboo has been broken that Iranian officials have now agreed to meet face-toface at this high level uh with the United States and that helps uh them in this decision-m process that more senior officials can make

quicker decisions on the spot. Although it was said that during those talks in Islamabad uh that JD Vance and his team had been on the phone half a dozen maybe a dozen times to President Trump. The Iranians of course because of security concerns because and of course this is a big question how do they reach the Supreme Leader Musht Baham is he in is he in touch how seriously injured he is? But they didn't want to they had to wait till they came back uh to Tehran. So there's lots of factors in the mix but let's take them at their word. Both sides want to do a deal and both sides say that if they don't do a deal, they're ready to return to war. And that's where uh the situation is now hanging in the balance.

And when it comes to a breakthrough, what could that look like? Because it seems very complicated in terms of how you've outlined it there. We've talked about the enrichment of uranium. We've talked about the importance of the straight of Hormuse as well and the control of that in particular. So a breakthrough is very difficult to picture at the moment. Well, what could it look like though if they are able to somehow meet in the middle and create something which they both agree on? The last nuclear negotiations and indeed the last rounds of talks before this war between the United States and Iran only focused on the narrow nuclear deal. They didn't talk about ballistic missiles.

They didn't talk about Iran's prognosis and partners in the region. And they didn't have to deal with this new challenge which has been a gift to Iran in this war. And that is what Iran insists now is its control of that strategic straight the straight of Hormuz. So when you're looking at the wide range of issues that have to be resolved, it is going to take a long time. But let's look at it by one of the issues. For example, what President Trump says is the core issue, Iran's nuclear program. He's repeatedly said Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. And not just that, it cannot have the means to acquire a nuclear weapon. So Iran before this war the concession it had made to the American

negotiators was we are willing to put a moratorium on nuclear enrichment for 5 years. Now bear in mind that Iran is not enriching uranium now as far as we can see because of the damage to its nuclear sites in the June war last year when the United States uh struck three main uh nuclear centers of Iran's uh program. What we understand what the Americans are demanding is a 20-year moratorum. Well, it's in the nature of negotiations that they can would they settle around 10 years. Would that be enough for the Americans? Would President Trump accept that? Would the Iranians given they have political pressures within their ranks

as well? The hardliners who aren't happy about this deal making. Could they do that? But that's in the nature of these negotiations, both sides trying to narrow the gap. And to the issue of the stockpile of highlyenriched uranium, 440 kg enriched to 60% that's dangerously close to weapons grade. President Trump in the manner he likes to do deals is demanding hand over what he calls that nuclear dust. I was speaking with an official this morning. They said we're not going to hand over uh this nuclear stockpile. They had offered again before the war to dilute it down to 20%. That's not enough uh to do a deal. So that's you I those little details give you a sense of how a deal what are the elements what is the

nature of the negotiations that can you can inch toward a deal and in that time you're going to have people walking away from the table one side or another saying that's not acceptable one side or another saying I have to go back to the capital to discuss and that is why again I keep referring back because they give us a lesson the last round of negotiations um in Vienna in 2015. The Iranian negotiators here had told me some time ago they went to Vienna for what they thought was 6 days. They stayed for 22 days. I remember the US Secretary of State John Kerry clearing his diary for 3 weeks. I thought, "Wow, can he really do that?" And he did. On top of it, he fell off his bicycle when he was when he

was cycling through the streets of so he couldn't go anywhere. And other foreign ministers did the same. If you really want to do a deal, you have to get down into the nitty-gritty of the deal. And they're not there yet. And the question is whether the President Trump's team having hollowed out the State Department are dealing diplomacy really without diplomats. And President Trump says, I know how to do a deal. A deal will be done with my invoice. Let's see. But that's that's what you need. Those are the ingredients if you like if you want to bake a cake of a deal. Just a word on the Iranian regime. Do you feel as though maybe the United States have fundamentally not really looked at how Iran is run? Have

have they misread how Iran works? It seems as though Iran are willing to wait this out as long as it takes because they have a strategy and they have a very long-term view of this. We don't really know what uh what position papers have been given to President Trump, how he's been briefed on uh the nature of decision-making, the structure of power um in this theocracy in the Islamic Republic of Iran. If we go by his statements, and of course we know sometimes his statements are made for one reason or another, to influence the markets, to give a positive impression. But what he keeps saying is that well, we've achieved regime change in Iran because we've changed the individuals. That is patently incorrect. The regime,

they wouldn't call it regime here. They see it as an opposition statement, but the Islamic order is still in place. Yes, the top echelons of the political and the security establishment have been killed in those assassinations is through Israeli air strikes. But this is the Iranian system is not dependent on one individual, one decision-making. It is a multi-layered security, religious and political system which has been honed and hardened over 47 years since the Islamic Revolution. Um, and it is built for survival. It's built to survive these kinds of shocks. And the way that President Trump seems to be seeing this because he uses the words is that he talks about Venezuela as being

the perfect scenario. In other words, you took out Nicholas Maduro. Not a single life was lost among the American forces. And then you work with Deli Rodriguez who moves up from being vice president to president. And basically they find a way to work together largely at the behest of President Donald Trump. That's not going to be the situation here. The system now is much more militarized. It is increasingly dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Even before all of this happened, last year's war, this year's war, the assassinations, the assessment of Iran had been that once the supreme leader uh in that case the discussion was passed away, not assassinated, that it would be the Islamic Revolutionary

Guard Corps, the IRGC, they would be the ones who would have a dividing say. There'd be even discussions that this the order would become less clerical and much more uh of commanders uh literally calling uh the shots. What so this is this gives you some indication of decision m decision making here and yes it takes a long time. It takes a long time to negotiate here. It takes a long time to decide how far they're able and willing to go and they have their red lines and some of the red lines they're not going to cross and some of them the red the lines can become pink or they can move the red lines but right now they're only at the start of what by any uh realistic

assessment is going to still be a distance to travel. Lisa as always thank you so much for your time at least there our chief international correspondent reporting from Tran. All of Lisa's material that's being used uh it's being used on the condition that none of it is being broadcast on the BBC's Persian service. That restriction also applies to all international media organizations reporting from Iran. As always, thank you so much for your company. Do give us a like and subscribe below and we'll see you on the next one.