Kentucky Derby 2026 Preview: Key Storylines, Predictions, and Top Contenders

Hello everybody. Welcome into your Saturday edition of CBS Sports HQ. I'm Katie Mox. We've got a great hour for you, but we're going to start with the ponies. It is the 152nd Kentucky Derby and the first leg of the Triple Crown with a $5 million purse once again, including 3.1 million to the winner. It's known as the most exciting two minutes in sports. And the run for the roses. Only 19 three-year-olds will get their shots as the road to racing immortality begins. And I'll tell you this, history not on the side of the rail. Only eight horses have won the Kentucky Derby from post one since 1930 and none since Ferdinand. It is a tough draw with traffic issues and limited room early. So the question this year,

can anyone buck the trend from the inside? For more, let's welcome in everyone's favorite coach, champion, and racing enthusiast Avery Johnson, who will be at Church Hill Downs later today. And Coach Renegade is the favorite here, but he drew the rail. The number one post position, and as we just saw, history is not on that side. Now, the number five post has produced the most winners. Number one, well, they haven't had a winner since 1986. So, coach, how much weight should we put into the draw here? Is this a real red flag for Renegade or are we overthinking his talent a bit? Yes, sometimes it can be a red flag drawing the number one post, but you know, sometime a red light can turn into a green light. This is an outstanding

horse. Uh he's got a terrific jockey on him, I Ortiz, Todd Pletcher who's an incredible trainer. Mike Rapoli, Rapolei Stable, who co-owns this horse. So, they have the right combination. Fortunately, the horse scratched earlier in the race. So, that number one position is really number two because they moved all the horses over a little bit. So, uh Renegade is a horse that's uh just got to find the right trip. If he can find the right trip, you know, he has an opportunity to get it done. I went to the derby back in um 2009 2010. Super Saver won from the number four hole. So, even though that wasn't a great post position on a sloppy Kentucky Derby day, it's doable. So, I'm hoping that Renegade can have some

really good racing luck and that the speed at the top of the uh stretch could really set him up for a big stretch run. Yeah, and like you said, one horse did scratch earlier this morning, so only 19, which does open things up maybe for Renegade there. Uh, Coach Bob Baffert chasing history, a record seventh Kentucky Derby win. Of course, last year marked his return. and two Church Hill Downdowns after that three-year suspension. Now he's got two horses in the field this year. Neither of them getting too much love from oddsmakers and from experts alike. So coach, is the market sleeping on Baffford here, or is this just a case where maybe the horses don't match the hype this time around?

Yeah, the horses don't match the hype. Normally like Bob is, you know, he brought Justify uh to the derby and that was ended up being a triple crown winner. Uh, I was actually my first derby was 1997. You see it? Silver charm. That was my first derby of, you know, 12 derbies. So, I was there for Bob's first win. Uh, so, but you can't never count out Bob Baffford. We know what Justify and Authentic did. American Pharaoh went on to be an outstanding horse. But yeah, people probably are sleeping on these two horses. But anytime you got Bob Baffford as a trainer, you have to be tread lightly. Yeah. And I will say I think he's got one of the best heads of hair probably at Church Hill Downs as well. He's looking real sharp as are you, coach.

One of the best stories on the board has got to be Bill Mott, right? And his son Riley Mott. Both saddling horses in this year's Derby. It's just the second father-son duo to do it and the first since 1964. Coach, when you look at experience versus hunger, father versus son, who has the edge? Yes, definitely dad has the edge which he probably be who uh finished third in the Florida Derby behind uh you know Puma Scratch and Commandment uh won that race but definitely his dad and Bill for years had been known trainer but you know he won the Kentucky Derby with sovereignty and Riley was his is an assistant uh trainer for about 11 years now he brings the long shot incredible boat who won the Virginia Derby uh into

this race but what a Great story and it would be an incredible story if maybe Bill wins the race and Incredible comes in second or they run second and third behind Rene which would it would be an great for me. All right, coach. Well, you know, we can't talk Derby without talking about some winners here. Let's start with your long shot. Yeah, when you look at my long shots, um, Golden Tempo, uh, this horse finished third in the Louisiana Derby in my hometown of New Orleans. But if you go back and watch that race, he was third right behind Emerging Market. And

for some reason, he shifted from the outside all the way to the rail. So, he lost a couple of lengths there right there in the middle into the end of the stretch right before the finish line. I think if Jose Ortiz, who won the Kentucky Oaks on yesterday, can just keep this horse disciplined and straight in the stretch, I think he can really get this mile and a quarter distance and come and uh get into the, you know, maybe second or third uh and really deliver some big returns for folks that are bet on Golden Temple. Okay, I really like the name uh Incredibles. I think that's one of my favorite horse names so far in this derby. But coach, now we got to pick the win uh for the most exciting two minutes

in sports, volume 152. Now, Renegade is the favorite, but as we talked about at the top, he drew post one. Can he overcome it? Yeah, he can overcome it. This horse ran a 107 buyer um at this distance. That's the fastest horse at a longer distance. He wants this mile and a quarter. Mike Ripley has had three scratches in the der of his 11 potential starts uh in the derby. Uh this is the anniversary of his grandmother who passed away. There's so much momentum. He won the first race today with a horse called Powers Shift after having not a not so good day on yesterday. So today is Mike Ripley's day with uh

Renegade and his whole family. Uh Maria his wife, Joya his daughter. Uh, today is the day for Renegade to be a renegade down the stretch they come in Kentucky. I love it. Living up to his name, coach. You look like a million bucks. I can't wait to see what Mrs. Johnson uh wears today. Good luck with those picks. And hey, have some fun today. And as we take a look Thanks, coach. As we take a look at the Triple Crown schedule here, of course, today the Kentucky Derby post time approximately 6:57 Eastern. Then you got the PNness May 16th in Laurel Park of 2 million. And then the Belmont Stakes on June 6, Saratoga Racecourse in New York. Purse of 2 million.