Israel and Lebanon have held direct negotiations for the first time in nearly 40 years. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who mediated the talks in Washington, has called them a historic opportunity. And despite this diplomatic milestone, Israel has pressed on with its attacks on positions in Lebanon held by Hezbollah. The militant group also fired rockets into northern Israel today. Now, the two governments have agreed to hold further talks and Israel's ambassador to the US says that he's optimistic. Uh the uh what gives me hope is the fact that the uh Lebanese government made it very clear that they will no longer be occupied uh be by uh bybala and uh Iran has been

weakened. Uh is dramatically weakened. This is an opportunity. This is the first time our two countries are sitting together in over three decades. Let's feel the moment. Let's enjoy the moment. And we enjoyed it together. We had a wonderful exchange of over two hours. Uh there's a joint statement that's coming out, a statement where the ambassador expressed her government's position, where I expressed my government's position, and we're going to take it from there. Well, for more on these talks, I'm joined now by Fawas Gajes. He's professor of Middle Eastern politics and international relations at the London School of Economics. Fas, it's good to have you back on the program. Um, let me

just start by asking you, how big is this moment for Israel and Lebanon? Well, this is the first time that the two countries have had any diplomatic contact since 1993. So uh it is uh I mean quite a huge moment for Israel in particular uh because Lebanon uh came to the talks uh while uh it is under fire. Uh Lebanon has very little leverage. Uh just today as the talks were taking place uh Lebanon's health authority said Israel killed 35 uh Lebanese. Israel bombed tier, one of

the most important historical cities in the world and also basically bombed uh a near hospital in the south who injured several people. So the reality while it's a huge um you know significant uh development for Israel uh for Lebanon uh the country is under fire uh more than 2,000 people have been killed. Israel has displaced more than 1 million people. Saud have been injured and Israel and this is my final point. Israel now controls 8 miles in southern Lebanon a huge buffer zone. So all in all this is of course a big plus for Israel but for Lebanon is huge question mark.

Hezbollah has rejected these talks in Washington and has appeared to step up its fire on northern Israel as the talks began today. So, let me ask you, what can these talks really achieve without Hezbollah being on board? Well, you know, to be frank, very little actually. Uh I am not very optimistic at all. And the reason why it's not just about uh Lebanon is deeply divided over diplomatic engagement with Israel. In fact, much of Lebanon's population is skeptical about if Israel whether Israel will stop its attacks on Lebanon or whether Israel will pull out its forces from 8 miles Lebanon. Israel now control 8 miles of territories in Lebanon. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu has made it very clear. He has no intention of pulling his forces from the huge security buffer zone in Lebanon. In the same way that he has a buffer zone in Gaza, he has a buffer zone in Syria. My fear and that's I hope I am wrong. My fear is that there's a real danger that Lebanon could descend into domestic instability and hostilities if this polarization in Lebanon continues and if the talks don't prod produce any results uh for Lebanon. Final point on this. U the Lebanese government said that the topic for discussion today between the Lebanese ambassador in the US in the United Nations and the Israeli ambassador in Washington was basically to reach a ceasefire. Well, there

is no ceasefire. Israel has not agreed to a ceasefire. The Americans have not really pressured Israel to basically stop their oil machine in Lebanon. So this will pour gasoline on the raging fire in Lebanon itself. I want to stay with Hezbollah in Lebanon for just a moment. I mean, you're aware as we are that Hezbollah's ties have soured with Lebanon's top political authorities. There's been criticism of Hezbollah's decision to enter the war last month and um Hezbollah's activities in the country. We know that those activities have been criminalized. That said, is it realistic to expect that Lebanon will ever be able to permanently cast off Hezbollah?

Again, I doubt it very much. HBah is not everyone I know in Germany and in the UK and the US and everywhere talk about only as a paramilitary organization. Hbah is a political organization. HZBah is a social movement has millions of people who support even though you're right many Lebanese now are deeply critical of they blameah for giving Israel a justification for the second round of invasion of Lebanon but at the end of the day Lebanon is a tiny country very fragile without any kind of reconciliation without agreement by the Shia community which is represent the social base ofah I fear whatever the

Lebanese government and agrees with Israel will not be able to really basically activate will not because leaders have made it very clear will not respect any outcomes of the talks but myself to go beyond the question aboutah I doubted very much whether Israel will accept Lebanon's uh basically demands if stopping the war and pulling out of Lebanese territories But Netanyahu has made it very clear he will not do so. Do you think that it is likely that we are going to see a ground invasion of Lebanon by Israel?

Well, Brandt, there is a ground invasion. You have more than 100,000 Israeli troops invading Lebanon. I don't know you know whether you've read according to human rights organization and the United Nations Israel has been raising villages has been destroying the habitat Israel is using the same model it used in Gaza in Banon and Raf we there plenty of evidence what Israel is trying to do is to really prevent citizens in particular the Shia community who inhabit southern Lebanon to return to their village villages and towns. And that's why it's raising literally every aspect of life on the Israeli Lebanese borders. Dozens, schools of villages and towns have been

raised in southern Lebanon. First, I want to ask you before we run out of time, Iran says that an end to the war in Lebanon is a precondition to talks with the United States. We know there's a lot writing on diplomacy here. What do you see as the most likely outcome of all the possible scenarios? think I see the Americans and the Iranians returning to the negotiating table in the next few days. Both sides have a vested interest in not renewing hostilities. So they have a vested interest in reaching a diplomatic uh solution. And what's happening behind closed doors is really as important as the bluster and the threats we have been hearing from President Trump. On the

Lebanese Israeli track, I am very skeptical because without American pressure, without President Trump's basically telling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop his strikes against Lebanon, I doubt it very much whether Israeli Prime Minister will do so because he has been really marginalized or sidelined. from the American Iranian talks in Islamabad and the ceasefire itself. Well, for us, what do you think would have to happen would have to be put on the table for Israel to get it to agree to stop its attacks on Lebanon.

President Trump, no one, Israel will not listen to anyone. Israel will not take word from anyone. The Lebanese government has made it very clear it basically it's willing to have operational control of southern Lebanon, have the sole authority of southern Lebanon and it did so for many months after the ceasefire was signed in 2024. Israel never stopped its attacks after the ceasefire. In fact, it really humiliated the Lebanese government and that's why never retaliated till the American Israeli war. basically started against Iran. It retaliated for the

assassination of the supreme leader. Um Ali Kami and Israel then use that particular retaliation as a pretext to basically begin its second round of attacks against Lebanon. Well, I would ask you to be a psychologist for a moment here for us. I mean, considering all of the lack of trust there is on both sides here with Israel and Lebanon, the levels of humiliation that you're talking about with considering all of that, how in the world did the United States convince both sides to actually sit down face to face because as you say, it's they haven't done that since the 1990s.

Well, first of all, I think this is a very good question because the Lebanese government has come under tremendous pressure by the Americas to engage directly with Israel. Remember, there is no consensus in Lebanon. In fact, Lebanon is deeply divided on having any diplomatic engagement with Israel. And I think it was President Trump who convinced Benjamin Netanyahu to limit his attacks against the Lebanese cap capital and basically engage the Lebanese government diplomatically. But remember the qualification here while prime minister Israeli prime minister agreed to negotiate with the Lebanese government basically he said we will negotiate under fire. So the Lebanese

government basically has no really leverage. How can you talk to a partner to a an interlocator while your cities and towns are being raised and attacked on an hourly basis? This is what the Lebanese government find itself because there is no leverage. The Lebanese government has no leverage. In fact, it cannot convince or pressure to respect any kind of results of whatever emerge uh out of the talks. Do you think though that the an endgame possibility is this simple that if we could get Israel and Lebanon to end the hostilities, then immediately that would be a catalyzing force for Iran and the United States to be able to find common ground and end that war.

think the United States and Iran will find will most likely find common ground without any kind of basically peace treaty between Lebanon and Israel. I don't think Lebanon and Israel basically is really a significant question for the Americans or the Iranians. Of course, it's it's a you might say it's a it could derail to a certain extent, but obviously the Americans and the Iranians have a greater interest in basically reaching an agreement regardless of what happened on the Lebanese Israeli front even though the Americans want the Lebanese front to be stabilized as opposed to really Israel bombing the capital and killing hundreds like last Wednesday. It

killed more than 300 Lebanese and destroyed whole neighborhoods in Beirut. So my take on it is that even Iran is willing to proceed without a full complete ceasefire in Lebanon. For us, last question for you, for our viewers, maybe who have been following this story, you know, we have reported numerous times, we've been told that Iran's capability of projecting power through its proxies, we've been told that has been greatly diminished. Should people be surprised that Hezbollah appears to be a still a force to be reckoned with in Lebanon?

This really brand this particular narrative basically proven to be false. Think of the many obituaries that they were written regarding and regarding the Houthis in Yemen and regarding the pro-Iranian groups in Iraq. In fact, even Israeli military officials have been shocked by how potentah's capabilities are. I mean, think of what's happening in southern Lebanon. Israel is facing really stiff resistance. Hbah is waging a gorilla warfare in southern Lebanon. The Houthis joined the war. The Iraqi uh groups who support Iran joined the war. So in fact the war itself the past five weeks what Iran has shown is that its allies its regional allies or proxies are not only

very active but they are capable and potent and could really provide a great deal of firepower and that's why Iran wants a ceasefire on the Israel Lebanese front because came for Iran when Iran needed to really provide a helping hand against Israel. We have covered a lot of territory in this talk tonight. I appreciate your time and your commitment to putting these things into context for us. Thank you for having me.